DROUGHT EXERCISE - Afternoon simulated Potomac flow and demand update (Wednesday 10/05/2020) - DROUGHT EXERCISE
Yesterday's basin-wide average precipitation (above Little Falls):
0 inches
(based on CO-OP's Low Flow Forecast System analysis of MARFC gridded quantitative precipitation estimates)
This is Day 2 of the annual Washington metropolitan area (WMA) drought exercise. The exercise scenario appears below. During the exercise, WMA water suppliers are sending data on withdrawals and reservoir levels twice daily, and ICPRB CO-OP staff are communicating via phone with supplier operations staff regarding requested operational changes.
EXERCISE SCENARIO
This is Day 1 of the annual Washington metropolitan area (WMA) drought exercise, which will be conducted on Wednesday, Nov 20 and Thursday, Nov 21. The exercise scenario appears below. During the exercise, WMA water suppliers are sending data on withdrawals and reservoir levels twice daily, and ICPRB CO-OP staff are communicating via phone with supplier operations staff regarding requested operational changes.
EXERCISE SCENARIO
NOTE: In our twice daily reports for the 2019 exercise we are reporting ACTUAL basin flows and system withdrawals, and SIMULATED recommended operations
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ACTUAL CONDITIONS REPORTED BELOW
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Daily Monitoring was initiated on 9/23/2019 and discontinued on 10/23/2019.
River flow at Point of Rocks has been above our drought monitoring trigger of 2000 cfs for the past two days, and the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center's streamflow forecasts indicate that flows will remain above this level for the next week. Therefore, daily monitoring will be discontinued until further notice. Thank you all for your contributions to the monitoring effort!
No rain fell in the basin over the past 24 hours according to the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center. Over the next 7 days, between 1 and 1.75 inches of rain are expected in the basin.
Flows have been fluctuating around 2000 cfs, the threshold for daily monitoring. Daily monitoring will be continued until flows are consistently above the 2000 cfs threshold.
On average, the basin received less than half an inch of rainfall yesterday, with rainfall totals increasing from west to east. Far western areas of the basin received trace amounts of rain while rainfall totals exceeded 1.5 inches in parts of the DC metro area. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of additional rainfall is expected over the next 7 days.
According to the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC), 0.01 to 0.75 inches of precipitation fell in the basin over the last 24 hours (ending at 7:00 AM Sunday). It is currently raining and MARFC forecasts that 0.75 to 2.00 inches of precipitation will fall over the next 72 hours. The National Weather Service expects 1.25 to 3.00 inches of precipitation over the next 7 days.
According to the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center, no rain fell in the basin over the past 24 hours. The National Weather Service expects up to an inch of rain in the basin over the next 7 days.
Flows at the USGS gage at Point of Rocks are currently above 2000 cfs, the trigger for daily monitoring. Please note, however, that the USGS has been working on some recent issues with the stage sensor at the Point of Rocks gage. Daily monitoring will be continued at this time to confirm that flows remain above the 2000 cfs threshold for a few days given recent gage corrections.