The National Weather Service (NWS) 3-day forecast predicts accumulations of 1 1/4 to 2 inches of rain in the Potomac basin above Little Falls. The NWS Global Ensemble Forecast System simulations predict that flow at Point of Rocks will rise above 2000 cfs, our trigger for daily drought monitoring, over the coming week.
The Middle Atlantic Forecast Center forecasts approximately an inch of rain in the basin over the next three days.
Daily Flows:
Little Falls gage flow 2017-10-05: 821 MGD (1270 cfs)
Little Falls gage flow 2017-10-06: 885 MGD (est., based on recently available real time data) (1370 cfs)
Note: Gage flow at Little Falls is measured after water supply withdrawals.
Point of Rocks flow 2017-10-05: 976 MGD (1510 cfs)
Point of Rocks flow 2017-10-06: 918 MGD (est., based on recently available real time data) (1420 cfs)
One to two inches of rain is expected over the next 7 days.
Daily Flows:
Little Falls gage flow 2017-10-04: 840 MGD (1300 cfs)
Little Falls gage flow 2017-10-05: 769 MGD (est., based on recently available real time data) (1190 cfs)
Note: Gage flow at Little Falls is measured after water supply withdrawals.
Point of Rocks flow 2017-10-04: 931 MGD (1440 cfs)
Point of Rocks flow 2017-10-05: 1034 MGD (est., based on recently available real time data) (1600 cfs)
The National Weather Services 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast continues to look promising.
Daily Flows:
Little Falls gage flow 2017-10-03: 808 MGD (1250 cfs)
Little Falls gage flow 2017-10-04: 814 MGD (est., based on recently available real time data) (1260 cfs)
Note: Gage flow at Little Falls is measured after water supply withdrawals.
Point of Rocks flow 2017-10-03: 885 MGD (1370 cfs)
Point of Rocks flow 2017-10-04: 873 MGD (est., based on recently available real time data) (1350 cfs)
The National Weather Service's 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast indicates that the basin could receive 1/2 inch to 1 inch of rain at the beginning of next week.
Daily Flows:
Little Falls gage flow 2017-10-02: 827 MGD (1280 cfs)
Little Falls gage flow 2017-10-03: 814 MGD (est., based on recently available real time data) (1260 cfs)
Note: Gage flow at Little Falls is measured after water supply withdrawals.
River flows continue to fall. It looks like the western portion of the basin could receive some rain toward the end of the next 7-day period.
Daily Flows:
Little Falls gage flow 2017-10-01: 873 MGD (1350 cfs)
Little Falls gage flow 2017-10-02: 840 MGD (est., based on recently available real time data) (1300 cfs)
Note: Gage flow at Little Falls is measured after water supply withdrawals.
Point of Rocks flow 2017-10-01: 892 MGD (1380 cfs)
Point of Rocks flow 2017-10-02: 834 MGD (est., based on recently available real time data) (1290 cfs)
No change in weather conditions is expected over the next week. The US Army Corps of Engineers made the season's final whitewater release yesterday from Savage Reservoir: 1000 cfs from 10 AM to 4 PM. More information on North Branch Potomac releases can be found at http://www.nab-wc.usace.army.mil/northBranch.html.
The National Weather Service forecasts that dry conditions will continue in the basin over the next 7 days.
Daily Flows:
Little Falls gage flow 2017-09-29: 853 MGD (1320 cfs)
Little Falls gage flow 2017-09-30: 860 MGD (est., based on recently available real time data) (1330 cfs)
Note: Gage flow at Little Falls is measured after water supply withdrawals.
Point of Rocks flow 2017-09-29: 944 MGD (1460 cfs)
Point of Rocks flow 2017-09-30: 918 MGD (est., based on recently available real time data) (1420 cfs)
This email concludes CO-OP's 2015 Washington Metropolitan Area Drought Exercise. Experience gained during our annual drought exercises helps maintain our region's preparedness to reliably supply water even in the face of serious drought. We would like to thank everyone who participated in the exercise for your assistance, insights, patience, and hard work.
National Weather Service forecasts indicates that the basin will have no relief from the dry weather over the next week. Potomac River flow at Point of Rocks is now close to its 25th percentile level for this day of the year.
The daily flow and demand update was inadvertently not sent out yesterday. Yesterday's reported demand values appear at the end of today's report.