Monitoring Reports

Except for scattered amounts of trace rainfall yesterday, the basin has not received any precipitation over the past 7 days. The National
Weather Service predicts no precipitation in the basin over the next 48-hour period. A small amount of rain, up to 1/10 of an inch, is
being forecasted to fall in the North Branch area within the next five days. It appears that the artificially varied flow (AVF) release from
Jennings Randolph has reached Little Falls causing increased flow at the gage. It is expected that flows will drop again once the AVF

Over the last 24 hours, less than a 0.1 of an inch of precipitation fell over the mainstem of the Potomac between Goose Creek and the Monocacy; the remaining areas in the basin received no rain. Over the next 48 hours, the National Weather Service indicates a chance of up to 0.1 of an inch of rain in the North Branch, with a possibility of a 0.25 of an inch in the Washington, D.C. area. Over the next 5 days, there is a chance of up to 0.1 of an inch of rain, with most of the central portion of the basin receiving no rain.

No precipitation fell in the basin yesterday, except for an isolated amount of trace rainfall over the mainstem between Goose Creek and the Monocacy. The trajectory of Hurricane Earl remains off the coast and it does not appear that the basin will receive any precipitation from this event. The National Weather Service does indicate a chance of up to 0.10 of an inch of rain in the next 48 hours in the North Branch area. The flow at Point of Rocks reflects the artificially varied flow release reaching the gage.

Negligible amounts of precipitation have been observed in the Potomac basin over the past couple of days. The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts show no predicted precipitation over the next 48-hour period. As Hurricane Earl moves up the East Coast, the NWS indicates that the 5-day accumulated precipitation could range from 0.1 and 0.5 inches over most of the basin. The artificially varied flow release is currently passing the Potomac River gage at Hancock, MD.

No precipitation fell in the Potomac basin over the past 24 hours. The National Weather Service predicts little rain over its 5-day forecast period, but the trajectory of Hurricane Earl is uncertain, and it could have an impact on the basin. Last weekend's AVF water quality release from Jennings Randolph Reservoir should be arriving at Little Falls on Friday. Note: yesterday's daily mean flow values are not available for many Potomac basin gages, including Point of Rocks and Little Falls, so values given below for 8/30 are estimated from available real-time data.

Flows from the Shenandoah River and last weekend's artificially varied flow release should help to maintain flows at Point of Rocks and Little Falls over the next couple of days. No significant precipitation fell in the basin yesterday, and the National Weather Service predicts no rain over the 48-hour forecast period. There is a possibility of between 0.01 and 0.10 inches of rain over the 5-day forecast period.

Flows in most Potomac basin tributaries are slowly dropping, but recent rain events have increased flow in the Shenandoah River, and this should help to maintain flows at Point of Rocks and Little Falls over the next several days. No significant precipitation fell in the basin yesterday, and the National Weather Service predicts no rain over its 5-day forecast period. The US Army Corps of Engineers initiated a 24-hr 870 cfs AVF (Artificially Varied Flow) release from Jennings Randolph Reservoir yesterday morning.

Aqueduct withdrawals at the Little Falls intake caused a drop in flows at the Little Falls gage; flows should recover sometime later today. Flows at the Point of Rocks gage remain steady. An artificially varied flow is scheduled to be released from Jennings Randolph Reservoir today and should temporarily raise flows during the next couple of days.

Flow at the Point of Rocks gage increased slightly over night due to small amounts of rain in the area. Trace amounts of precipitation were seen yesterday in an area reaching from Jefferson County, WV to downstream of the Washington metro area and over a small portion of the South Fork Shenandoah River. Both the 48-hour forecast from the River Forecast Center and the 5-day National Weather Service QPF are predicting no accumulated precipitation over their respective forecast periods in the Potomac basin.

The Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center shows that some portions of the Basin received rain accumulations of up to a 0.01 of an inch yesterday; most areas received no rain. The Forecast Center shows no rain over the next 48 hours. The National Weather Service Quantitative Precipitation Forecast shows no rain in the basin above Little Falls over the next 5 day period.

Flows at Point of Rocks rose slightly due to small showers above the
gage. Flows at Little Falls continue to drop.